Polygenic risk-tailored screening for prostate cancer: A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The United States Preventive Services Task Force supports individualised decision-making for prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening in men aged 55-69. Knowing how the potential benefits and harms of screening vary by an individual's risk of developing prostate cancer could inform decision-making about screening at both an individual and population level. This modelling study examined the benefit-harm tradeoffs and the cost-effectiveness of a risk-tailored screening programme compared to age-based and no screening. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A life-table model, projecting age-specific prostate cancer incidence and mortality, was developed of a hypothetical cohort of 4.48 million men in England aged 55 to 69 years with follow-up to age 90. Risk thresholds were based on age and polygenic profile. We compared no screening, age-based screening (quadrennial PSA testing from 55 to 69), and risk-tailored screening (men aged 55 to 69 years with a 10-year absolute risk greater than a threshold receive quadrennial PSA testing from the age they reach the risk threshold). The analysis was undertaken from the health service perspective, including direct costs borne by the health system for risk assessment, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. We used probabilistic sensitivity analyses to account for parameter uncertainty and discounted future costs and benefits at 3.5% per year. Our analysis should be considered cautiously in light of limitations related to our model's cohort-based structure and the uncertainty of input parameters in mathematical models. Compared to no screening over 35 years follow-up, age-based screening prevented the most deaths from prostate cancer (39,272, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 16,792-59,685) at the expense of 94,831 (95% UI: 84,827-105,630) overdiagnosed cancers. Age-based screening was the least cost-effective strategy studied. The greatest number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was generated by risk-based screening at a 10-year absolute risk threshold of 4%. At this threshold, risk-based screening led to one-third fewer overdiagnosed cancers (64,384, 95% UI: 57,382-72,050) but averted 6.3% fewer (9,695, 95% UI: 2,853-15,851) deaths from prostate cancer by comparison with age-based screening. Relative to no screening, risk-based screening at a 4% 10-year absolute risk threshold was cost-effective in 48.4% and 57.4% of the simulations at willingness-to-pay thresholds of GBP£20,000 (US$26,000) and £30,000 ($39,386) per QALY, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of risk-tailored screening improved as the threshold rose. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of this modelling study, offering screening to men at higher risk could potentially reduce overdiagnosis and improve the benefit-harm tradeoff and the cost-effectiveness of a prostate cancer screening program. The optimal threshold will depend on societal judgements of the appropriate balance of benefits-harms and cost-effectiveness

Screening for ovarian cancer in women with varying levels of risk, using annual tests, results in high recall for repeat screening tests.

BACKGROUND: We assessed ovarian cancer screening outcomes in women with a positive family history of ovarian cancer divided into a low-, moderate- or high-risk group for development of ovarian cancer. METHODS: 545 women with a positive family history of ovarian cancer referred to the Ovarian Screening Service at the Royal Marsden Hospital, London from January 2000- December 2008 were included. They were stratified into three risk-groups according to family history (high-, moderate- and low-risk) of developing ovarian cancer and offered annual serum CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasound screening. The high-risk group was offered genetic testing. RESULTS: The median age at entry was 44 years. The number of women in the high, moderate and low-risk groups was 397, 112, and 36, respectively. During 2266 women years of follow-up two ovarian cancer cases were found: one advanced stage at her fourth annual screening, and one early stage at prophylactic bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO). Prophylactic BSO was performed in 138 women (25.3%). Forty-three women had an abnormal CA125, resulting in 59 repeat tests. The re-call rate in the high, moderate and low-risk group was 14%, 3% and 6%. Equivocal transvaginal ultrasound results required 108 recalls in 71 women. The re-call rate in the high, moderate, and low-risk group was 25%, 6% and 17%. CONCLUSION: No early stage ovarian cancer was picked up at annual screening and a significant number of re-calls for repeat screening tests was identified.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Common genetic variation associated with increased susceptibility to prostate cancer does not increase risk of radiotherapy toxicity.

BACKGROUND: Numerous germline single-nucleotide polymorphisms increase susceptibility to prostate cancer, some lying near genes involved in cellular radiation response. This study investigated whether prostate cancer patients with a high genetic risk have increased toxicity following radiotherapy. METHODS: The study included 1560 prostate cancer patients from four radiotherapy cohorts: RAPPER (n=533), RADIOGEN (n=597), GenePARE (n=290) and CCI (n=150). Data from genome-wide association studies were imputed with the 1000 Genomes reference panel. Individuals were genetically similar with a European ancestry based on principal component analysis. Genetic risks were quantified using polygenic risk scores. Regression models tested associations between risk scores and 2-year toxicity (overall, urinary frequency, decreased stream, rectal bleeding). Results were combined across studies using standard inverse-variance fixed effects meta-analysis methods. RESULTS: A total of 75 variants were genotyped/imputed successfully. Neither non-weighted nor weighted polygenic risk scores were associated with late radiation toxicity in individual studies (P>0.11) or after meta-analysis (P>0.24). No individual variant was associated with 2-year toxicity. CONCLUSION: Patients with a high polygenic susceptibility for prostate cancer have no increased risk for developing late radiotherapy toxicity. These findings suggest that patients with a genetic predisposition for prostate cancer, inferred by common variants, can be safely treated using current standard radiotherapy regimens.This work was supported by Cancer Research UK (C1094/A11728 to CMLW and NGB for the RAPPER study, C26900/A8740 to GCB, C5047A17528 to RE), the Royal College of Radiologists (GCB), Prostate Cancer UK (P2012148 to RE), The ELLIPSE Consortium on behalf of the GAME-ON Network, The National Institute for Health Research (GCB), Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust (GCB), NIHR support to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, The National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (NGB), UK Medical Research Council (LD), the Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre (CMLW), the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust (DPD), the United States National Institutes of Health (1R01CA134444 to BSR), the American Cancer Society (RSGT-05-200-01-CCE to BSR), the United States Department of Defense (PC074201 to BSR), Mount Sinai Tisch Cancer Institute Developmental Fund Award (BSR), the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (FIS PI10/00164 and PI13/02030 to AV), Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER 2007-2013 to AV), Xunta de Galicia and the European Social Fund (POS-A/2013/034 to LF), and the Alberta Cancer Board Research Initiative Program (103.0393.71760001404 to MP). Laboratory infrastructure for the RAPPER study was funded by Cancer Research UK [C8197/A10123]. DD acknowledges support from the National Institute for Health Research RM/ICR Biomedical Research Centre and all the researchers at the Royal Marsden Hospital and the Institute of Cancer Research. The RAPPER cohort comprises patients and data recruited into the RT01 and CHHiP UK radiotherapy trials. The RT01 trial was supported by the UK Medical Research Council. The CHHiP trial (CRUK/06/016) was supported by the Department of Health and Cancer Research UK (C8262/A7253); trial recruitment was facilitated within centers by the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under an indefinite embargo pending publication by Nature Publishing Group

Survival and disease characteristics of de novo versus recurrent metastatic breast cancer in a cohort of young patients

Abstract: Background: It is not clear how the pathology, presentation and outcome for patients who present with de novo metastatic breast cancer (dnMBC) compare with those who later develop distant metastases. DnMBC is uncommon in younger patients. We describe these differences within a cohort of young patients in the United Kingdom. Methods: Women aged 40 years or younger with a first invasive breast cancer were recruited to the prospective POSH national cohort study. Baseline clinicopathological data were collected, with annual follow-up. Overall survival (OS) and post-distant relapse-free survival (PDRS) were assessed using Kaplan–Meier curves. Results: In total, 862 patients were diagnosed with metastatic disease. DnMBC prevalence was 2.6% (76/2977). Of those with initially localised disease, 27.1% (786/2901) subsequently developed a distant recurrence. Median follow-up was 11.00 years (95% CI 10.79–11.59). Patients who developed metastatic disease within 12 months had worse OS than dnMBC patients (HR 2.64; 1.84–3.77). For PDRS, dnMBC was better than all groups, including those who relapsed after 5 years. Of dnMBC patients, 1.3% had a gBRCA1, and 11.8% a gBRCA2 mutation. Conclusions: Young women with dnMBC have better PDRS than those who develop relapsed metastatic breast cancer. A gBRCA2 mutation was overrepresented in dnMBC

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for breast and ovarian cancer risk prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]-positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2 x 10(53)). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2 x 10(-20)). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management

Effects of BRCA2 cis-regulation in normal breast and cancer risk amongst BRCA2 mutation carriers.

INTRODUCTION: Cis-acting regulatory single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at specific loci may modulate penetrance of germline mutations at the same loci by introducing different levels of expression of the wild-type allele. We have previously reported that BRCA2 shows differential allelic expression and we hypothesize that the known variable penetrance of BRCA2 mutations might be associated with this mechanism. METHODS: We combined haplotype analysis and differential allelic expression of BRCA2 in breast tissue to identify expression haplotypes and candidate cis-regulatory variants. These candidate variants underwent selection based on in silico predictions for regulatory potential and disruption of transcription factor binding, and were functionally analyzed in vitro and in vivo in normal and breast cancer cell lines. SNPs tagging the expression haplotypes were correlated with the total expression of several genes in breast tissue measured by Taqman and microarray technologies. The effect of the expression haplotypes on breast cancer risk in BRCA2 mutation carriers was investigated in 2,754 carriers. RESULTS: We identified common haplotypes associated with differences in the levels of BRCA2 expression in human breast cells. We characterized three cis-regulatory SNPs located at the promoter and two intronic regulatory elements which affect the binding of the transcription factors C/EBPα, HMGA1, D-binding protein (DBP) and ZF5. We showed that the expression haplotypes also correlated with changes in the expression of other genes in normal breast. Furthermore, there was suggestive evidence that the minor allele of SNP rs4942440, which is associated with higher BRCA2 expression, is also associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer (per-allele hazard ratio (HR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.72 to 1.00, P-trend = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Our work provides further insights into the role of cis-regulatory variation in the penetrance of disease-causing mutations. We identified small-effect genetic variants associated with allelic expression differences in BRCA2 which could possibly affect the risk in mutation carriers through altering expression levels of the wild-type allele.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Unusual presentation of Lynch Syndrome

Lynch Syndrome/HNPCC is a syndrome of cancer predisposition linked to inherited mutations of genes participating in post-replicative DNA mismatch repair (MMR). The spectrum of cancer associated with Lynch Syndrome includes tumours of the colorectum, endometrium, ovary, upper gastrointestinal tract and the urothelium although other cancers are rarely described. We describe a family of Lynch Syndrome with an hMLH1 mutation, that harbours an unusual tumour spectrum and its diagnostic and management challenges